www.l-orizzont.com - Is-Sibt 6 ta' Frar 2010
Fl-istorja, li issa ilha għad dejja, dwar iż-żidiet qawwijin fit-tariffi tad-dawl u tal-ilma u li riċentement kienet is-suġġett ta’ laqgħa turbulenti tal-MCESD, ma jistax ma jkunx innotat kemm il-Gvern jibqa’ stinat li jirrifjuta li jid diskuti t-tariffi nfushom anke jekk b’xi forma ta’ kumpens parzjali jipprova jtaffi xi ftit mill-weġgħat ikkawżati mit-tariffi. Huwa ferm diżappuntanti li tara li l-każ li qegħdin iġibu ’l quddiem l-imsieħba soċjali fil-laqgħat tal-MCESD ikun ridott għall-effett detrimentali li dawn iż-żidiet se jkollhom fuq in-negozji u l-impjiegi rispettivament. Dan wieħed jasal biex jif hmu. Madankollu l-MCESD issa nbidel fi speċi ta’ suq fejn l-operaturi jipprovaw jieħdu l-aħjar prezz li jistgħu, mingħand il-Gvern flok jiġġieldu għall-prinċipji ekonomiċi bażiċi li fuq hom irridu nibnu ekonomija effiċjenti u soda għal quddiem. Ma jfissirx li fil-passat l-imsieħba soċjali ma ressqux ’il quddiem argumenti mill-aspetti finanzjarji u ekonomiċi. Imma pożizzjonijiet bħal dawn, kemm mill-unjins tal-ħaddiema kif ukoll mill-għaqdiet ta’ min iħaddem, sabu lill-Gvern adamanti fuq kemm hi korretta l-istrateġija tiegħu fejn jidħlu t-tariffi. Din hi ħasra. Ghax jekk m’aħ niex ċari dwar il-prinċipji ekonomiċi li għandhom jiggwidaw lejn għażla ta’ strateġija korretta fejn jidħlu tariffi għall-utilitajiet pubbliċi, allura se jinħolqu preċedenti ħżiena. L-ekonomija tas-suq (imsejħa micro-econo mics) hija kompletament mibnija fuq kif għandna nħarsu li l-prezzijiet fl-istess suq għandhom ikunu korretti. Jekk le, l-ekonomija ssofri għax titlef ħafna mill-effiċjenza tagħha. Il-prinċipju li fuqu l-Gvern qed jibbaża l-istrateġija tiegħu fejn jidħlu tariffi ma setax ikun preżentat aħjar minn kif pre żen tat f’artiklu li kiteb b’kon vin zjoni riċentement fil-ġurnal The Times l-Avukat Austin Gatt, Ministru għall-Infrastrut tura, Trasport u Komunikazzjoni. Il-Ministru Gatt kiteb li “hemm involut punt ta’ prinċipju li nemmen li huwa fundamentali biex tifhem kif għandu jopera tibdil fit-tariffi. L-ewwel prinċipju huwa li, huma ta’ liema natura huma t-tariffi, dawn għandhom jagħmlu tajjeb għall-ispiża operazzjonali kollha u jipprovdu lill-operatur b’ritorn adekwat fuq l-investiment. Din mhix sem pliċi kwistjoni ta’ regolamentazzjoni tal-Unjoni Ewropea u liġi lokali, imma wkoll kwistjoni li tagħmel sens ekonomiku.” L-ewwel osservazzjoni tiegħi hi li dan l-argument ma fihx xi principju ġdid. Huwa fil-fatt l-argument tipiku li kull operatur monopolistiku jressaq ’il qud diem għall-attenzjoni tar-Re golatur. Huwa ċar daqs il-kristall li l-Ministru qed jiddefendi l-pożizzjoni tal-EneMalta kif għamlu ħafna ministri qablu sa mill-bidu tas-snin 80. Ħafna ministri saru ħaġa waħda mal-monopolji parastatali u korporazzjonijiet li jaqgħu taħthom b’tali mod li ħafna drabi spiċċaw ċermen tagħhom de facto. Mhux ta’ b’xejn li ħafna snin qabel is-sħubija fl-Unjoni Ewropea, madwar 18-il sena ilu, fi studju li għamilt għall-Federazzjoni tal-Industriji (FOI) fuq l-istrutturar tal-ekonomija, insistejt b’qawwa li għandhom jitwaqqfu Regolaturi Nazzjonali biex jieħdu f’idejhom il-prattiċi tal-Ministri biex ma jibqgħux preġudikati. Ejjew neżaminaw id-duttrina l-ġdida tal-Ministru Gatt fir-rigward ta’ ffissar ta’ tariffi. Tista’ timmaġina li tagħmel sens li xi operatur f’suq kompetittiv, hu x’inhu l-ġeneru ta’ negozju tiegħu kemm jekk għas-suq lokali kif ukoll għall-esportazzjoni, jitlob, U, jippretendi li jingħata tariffa li tkun tkopri l-ispiża sħiħa tal-operazzjoni tan-negozju u ritorn adekwat fuq l-investiment tiegħu? Veru jkun joħlom jekk jaħseb li dan jista’ jsir bi dritt! Il-mod ta’ kif fil-verità jaħdem is-suq għandu punt ta’ tluq differenti minn hekk. L-operatur f’suq kompetittiv, iffaċċjat mill-prezz tas-suq, irid, biex isalva, jimmira li jniżżel l-ispiża għal dak li s-suq jiflaħ iġorr, bit-tama li dan iħallilu ritorn diċenti biex ikun jista’ jkompli jaħdem. Għal dan ma tingħata ebda garanzija. La d-di rettiva tal-Unjoni Ewropea, la l-liġi Maltija u lanqas is-sens komun ma jistgħu jiggarantixxu li s-suq kompetittiv se tiġih ħniena minn xi operatur biex iżommu fin-negozju billi jkoprilu l-ispiża operazzjonali b’ritorn adegwat fuqha. Monopolju mhux regolat m’għandux dawn il-limitazzjonijiet tas-suq u jsir theddida għall-effiċjenza ekonomika u għas-soċjetà kollha jekk jitħalla juża l-kriterji tiegħu biex jasal għal prezzijiet monopolistiċi bbażati fuq is-sens egoistiku tiegħu. Huwa hawn li għandu jaġixxi r-Regolatur meta konfrontat b’operatur li, għal raġunijiet varji, m’għandux kompetizzjoni fis-suq tiegħu. Ir-regola hija sempliċi ħafna. Ir-Regolatur għandu jassigura li jistabbilixxi t-tariffi tal-monopolji f’livell li kien is-suq kieku kien jeżisti. Iffaċċjat minn dan il-prezz tar-Regolatur l-operatur monopolistiku, bħall-EneMalta, għandu mbagħad ikun sforzat inaqqas l-ispiża biex jassigura li jkun hemm ‘surplus’ adekwat biex b’hekk ikompli bl-investi ment tiegħu. F’Malta r-Regolatur għadu ma sabx saqajh, bil-konsegwenza li d-deciżjonijiet tal-Kor porazzjoni fejn jidhlu tariffi u investiment huma fid-deskrizzjoni, kif jgħoġbu, il-Ministru tal-ġurnata. Mhux sorpriża li l-korporazzjonijiet pubbliċi tagħna qegħdin jiffaċċjaw problemi kbar finanzjarji u ta’ investiment. Imma min għandu jagħmel tajjeb għad-differenza fid-dħul miġbur mit-tariffa li Regolatur, mgħammar adekwatament u indipendenti, jasal għaliha bħala adekwata, u l-ispiża operazzjonali li tressaq ’il quddiem il-korporazzjoni kawża ta’ ineffiċjenzi maniġerjali, tekniċi u ekonomiċi, passati u preżenti? Mill-ġdid, hawnhekk insibu konfużjoni fil-mod kif jaħseb il-Gvern, għalkemm il-prinċipji mressqin mill-Ministru huma ċari biżżejjed. Għal kemm konvinċenti wkoll, sfortunatament mhux ħielsa milli jinkisru wkoll. Jagħmel tajjeb għal din l-ineffiċjenza ċara huwa dak li jissejjaħ “sussidju”, forma ta’ rigal lill-produtturi privati u konsumaturi. Is-soċjetà fis-sens wiesa’ tagħ ha jkollha tħallas għad-dnubiet ekonomiċi tal-im għoddi. Imma l-piż finanzjarju ghandu jithallas bl-aktar mod newtrali li nistgħu nsibu fis-sistema ta’ tassazzjoni tagħ na, b’mod li l-piż jinqasam. Meta nagħmlu hekk għandna nassiguraw li l-prezzijiet relattivi għal materja prima bħaż-żejt ma jkunx hemm tbagħbis magħhom. Qegħdin f’suq kompetittiv immens fejn jirrigwarda manifattura, turiżmu u servizzi finanzjarji. Traqqigħ tas-sistema tagħna tal-prezzijiet jista’ jsir biss b’detriment għall-oqsma ekonomiċi u soċjali tagħna.
27.2.10
Is Greece eurozone's Iceland?
The Times - Friday, 11th December 2009
The financial crisis has taken many casualties. Aside from the impact that the recession has had on all countries across the world, two particular cases stand out. In 2008, Iceland's sudden prosperity built around its banking sector collapsed and the country effectively went bust. Last week, the collapse of the state-owned company Dubai World brought Dubai to its knees. Investors are starting to seriously worry about the possibility of more countries defaulting on their debts. In the euro-area, there is one country that everyone is talking about as the likeliest candidate: Greece. So, will Greece become the eurozone's Iceland and default on its debt? There is no doubt that Greece is in terrible economic trouble. Prices on credit default swaps tied to Greece, which are essentially used as insurance against bad government debt, are rising and its credit rating has already been downgraded from A to A-. Meanwhile, the difference in bond market spreads between Greek government bonds and German bonds has also increased rapidly despite the fact that Greece already paid significantly more on its government bond spreads than other EU countries. Their new Finance Minister, George Papaconstantinou, went as far as to write an article in last week's Wall Street Journal in a bid to reassure investors and commentators that, while the country was in recession and facing a grave fiscal situation, it would not go bankrupt. Of course, the "Greek problem" is not new. Greece has spent most of this decade living with spiralling government debt and high Budget deficits. On the latter point, the outgoing conservative government bequeathed to its socialist successor books that were cooked. This year's Budget deficit is now expected to be 12.7 per cent of GDP as opposed to the eight per cent stated by the outgoing Administration. Greece's government debt is projected to rise to 135 per cent by 2011. Greece, like Italy and several other member states, viewed the eurozone as a modern day "Noah's Ark" that would save them from financial turmoil. Like Malta, they took short-term measures to ensure that they joined the euro swiftly but did not make the deeper structural reforms to ensure greater labour market flexibility and productivity and the sustainability of their public sector programmes. However, the socialist government has demonstrated that it understands the gravity of the situation and is ready to act. Prime Minister George Papandreou, just a week after being elected in October, admitted that his country's economy was "in intensive care" adding that Greece was facing "the worst economic crisis since the restoration of democracy". Moreover, Mr Papandreou has the advantage that Greek public opinion know the mess that his government inherited and this should give him public support to make necessary but normally unpopular policy reforms. He has proposed a draft Budget for 2010 that includes a €3 billion fiscal stimulus programme and higher spending in education and health but stiff spending cuts elsewhere. These include a 25 per cent reduction in government consumption spending, a civil service hiring freeze in 2010, whereby only one new worker will be hired for every five who retire, and cuts to defence spending. They have also promised to grasp the nettle of pension reform and measures to tackle tax evasion. The Greek government expects these budgetary measures to reduce the deficit to 9.1 per cent by the end of next year. Still, these are fine words but they need to be matched by results. The response of financial markets indicates that they are far from convinced. One thing is for sure: they can expect few favours from the EU. The EU's Stability and Growth Pact, which stipulates that countries should keep government debt levels below 60 per cent and Budget deficits below three per cent, has taken a real battering during the crisis. Virtually all EU countries, including Malta, have breached the terms of the SGP and the Commission and the European Central Bank are desperate to ensure that their rules encouraging fiscal prudence are not completely abandoned. At the meeting of European finance ministers last week, Greece braced itself for stiff penalties. In other words, it is quite possible that a supplementary Budget, delivering further deficit cuts will be demanded. But I still think it is unlikely that Greece will go bust. As a member of the eurozone, it will not be allowed to and the ECB's president, Jean-Claude Trichet, continues to brush aside questions from journalists about the possibility of a eurozone country going bankrupt. For one thing, the eurozone is as much about political union as it is economic and monetary union. For a country to effectively drop out of the eurozone would be profoundly embarrassing for the EU. So, after all, can one say that being a euro member indeed offers a certain protection from sovereign debt default? Not so fast. The answer is in the affirmative but not for reasons implied by the "Noah's Ark" school. In fact, default is unlikely due to a combination of market discipline, peer pressure and the EU's SGP. It is through enormous sacrifices and painful policy measures "forced" on a eurozone country that will finally save it from bankruptcy. There will definitely be no soft bail-outs from the EU. Nonetheless, Greece's predicament should serve a salutary warning to others, including Malta. Running up huge government debts and Budget deficits, cooking the books with creative accounting and treating euro membership as though it provides you with a blank cheque, catches up with you eventually. Without credible public finances and fiscal and monetary discipline, a sustainable return to growth and normality is no more than a pipedream in or outside the eurozone. Prof. Scicluna is a Labour member of the European Parliament
The financial crisis has taken many casualties. Aside from the impact that the recession has had on all countries across the world, two particular cases stand out. In 2008, Iceland's sudden prosperity built around its banking sector collapsed and the country effectively went bust. Last week, the collapse of the state-owned company Dubai World brought Dubai to its knees. Investors are starting to seriously worry about the possibility of more countries defaulting on their debts. In the euro-area, there is one country that everyone is talking about as the likeliest candidate: Greece. So, will Greece become the eurozone's Iceland and default on its debt? There is no doubt that Greece is in terrible economic trouble. Prices on credit default swaps tied to Greece, which are essentially used as insurance against bad government debt, are rising and its credit rating has already been downgraded from A to A-. Meanwhile, the difference in bond market spreads between Greek government bonds and German bonds has also increased rapidly despite the fact that Greece already paid significantly more on its government bond spreads than other EU countries. Their new Finance Minister, George Papaconstantinou, went as far as to write an article in last week's Wall Street Journal in a bid to reassure investors and commentators that, while the country was in recession and facing a grave fiscal situation, it would not go bankrupt. Of course, the "Greek problem" is not new. Greece has spent most of this decade living with spiralling government debt and high Budget deficits. On the latter point, the outgoing conservative government bequeathed to its socialist successor books that were cooked. This year's Budget deficit is now expected to be 12.7 per cent of GDP as opposed to the eight per cent stated by the outgoing Administration. Greece's government debt is projected to rise to 135 per cent by 2011. Greece, like Italy and several other member states, viewed the eurozone as a modern day "Noah's Ark" that would save them from financial turmoil. Like Malta, they took short-term measures to ensure that they joined the euro swiftly but did not make the deeper structural reforms to ensure greater labour market flexibility and productivity and the sustainability of their public sector programmes. However, the socialist government has demonstrated that it understands the gravity of the situation and is ready to act. Prime Minister George Papandreou, just a week after being elected in October, admitted that his country's economy was "in intensive care" adding that Greece was facing "the worst economic crisis since the restoration of democracy". Moreover, Mr Papandreou has the advantage that Greek public opinion know the mess that his government inherited and this should give him public support to make necessary but normally unpopular policy reforms. He has proposed a draft Budget for 2010 that includes a €3 billion fiscal stimulus programme and higher spending in education and health but stiff spending cuts elsewhere. These include a 25 per cent reduction in government consumption spending, a civil service hiring freeze in 2010, whereby only one new worker will be hired for every five who retire, and cuts to defence spending. They have also promised to grasp the nettle of pension reform and measures to tackle tax evasion. The Greek government expects these budgetary measures to reduce the deficit to 9.1 per cent by the end of next year. Still, these are fine words but they need to be matched by results. The response of financial markets indicates that they are far from convinced. One thing is for sure: they can expect few favours from the EU. The EU's Stability and Growth Pact, which stipulates that countries should keep government debt levels below 60 per cent and Budget deficits below three per cent, has taken a real battering during the crisis. Virtually all EU countries, including Malta, have breached the terms of the SGP and the Commission and the European Central Bank are desperate to ensure that their rules encouraging fiscal prudence are not completely abandoned. At the meeting of European finance ministers last week, Greece braced itself for stiff penalties. In other words, it is quite possible that a supplementary Budget, delivering further deficit cuts will be demanded. But I still think it is unlikely that Greece will go bust. As a member of the eurozone, it will not be allowed to and the ECB's president, Jean-Claude Trichet, continues to brush aside questions from journalists about the possibility of a eurozone country going bankrupt. For one thing, the eurozone is as much about political union as it is economic and monetary union. For a country to effectively drop out of the eurozone would be profoundly embarrassing for the EU. So, after all, can one say that being a euro member indeed offers a certain protection from sovereign debt default? Not so fast. The answer is in the affirmative but not for reasons implied by the "Noah's Ark" school. In fact, default is unlikely due to a combination of market discipline, peer pressure and the EU's SGP. It is through enormous sacrifices and painful policy measures "forced" on a eurozone country that will finally save it from bankruptcy. There will definitely be no soft bail-outs from the EU. Nonetheless, Greece's predicament should serve a salutary warning to others, including Malta. Running up huge government debts and Budget deficits, cooking the books with creative accounting and treating euro membership as though it provides you with a blank cheque, catches up with you eventually. Without credible public finances and fiscal and monetary discipline, a sustainable return to growth and normality is no more than a pipedream in or outside the eurozone. Prof. Scicluna is a Labour member of the European Parliament
Il-Greċja: l-Islanda taż-Żona Ewro?
l-orizzont - Is-Sibt 19 ta' Diċembru 2009
IL-KRIŻI finanzjarja ħalliet ħafna vittmi. Apparti l-impatt li r-riċessjoni kellha fuq il-pajjiżi kollha tad-dinja, jispikkaw żewġ każi partikolari. Fis-sena 2008 il-prosperità mibnija f’daqqa fuq is-settur bankarju li esperjenzat l-Islanda, ikkollassat, u l-pajjiż effettivament falla. Ftit tal-jiem ilu l-waqgħa tal-kumpanija statali Dubai World niżżlet lil Dubai għarkuptejh. L-investi¬turi issa qegħdin jitħassbu serjament dwar il-possibiltà li jkun hemm pajjiżi oħrajn li jgħaddu mill-istess esperjenza kawża tad-djun tagħhom. Fiz-Żona Ewro hemm pajjiż wieħed li kulħadd qed jitħasseb dwaru bħala li jista’ jgħaddi mill-istess esperjenza: il-Greċja. Wieħed jistaqsi: il-Greċja se tkun l-Islanda taż-Żona Ewro u tbatti taħt id-djun tagħha? M’hemm ebda dubju li l-Greċja tinsab f’inkwiet ekono¬miku kbir ħafna. Sitwazzjoni li wasslet biex jitbaxxa l-livell ta’ ‘credit rating’ tal-Greċja, li minn A tniżżel għal A-. Sadanittant id-differenza fir-rati tal-imgħax fuq il-bonds kompliet tiżdied bejn il-bonds tal-Gvern Grieg u dawk Ġer¬maniżi kompliet tit¬wessa, minkejja l-fatt li l-Greċja diġà ħallset ferm aktar fuq il-bonds tagħha minn kull pajjiż ieħor tal-Unjoni Ewropea. Il-Ministru tal-Finanzi l-ġdid tal-Greċja, George Papa¬constantinou, wasal biex jikteb artiklu fil-Wall Street Journal fi sforz biex jassigura lill-investituri u lill-kummentaturi finanzjarji li waqt li l-pajjiż jinsab f’riċessjoni u qed jiffaċċja sitwazzjoni fiskali gravi, il-Greċja mhux se tfalli. Huwa veru li l-“problema Griega” mhix xi ħaġa ġdida. Il-Greċja għaddiet parti kbira minn dawn l-aħħar għaxar snin bi djun dejjem jikbru u b’defiċits fil-baġits għoljin mmens. Dwar dan id-defiċit il-Gvern Soċjalista attwali wiret mingħand il-Gvern Konservattiv “kotba mbagħbsin”. Id-defiċit għal din is-sena mistenni jkun jammonta għal 12.7% tal-Prodott Gross Domestiku, kuntrarjament għal 8% kif kien dikjarat mill-Gvern Konservattiv. Huwa pproġettat li sas-sena 2011 id-dejn tal-Gvern Grieg mistenni jkun tela’ għal 135%. Il-Greċja, bħall-Italja u ħafna pajjiżi oħrajn tal-Unjoni Ewro¬pea, kienu qegħdin iħarsu lejn iż-Żona Ewro bħala l-verżjoni moderna tal-Arka ta’ Noe li ssalvahom mid-diżastru finanzjarju. Bħal Malta, il-Greċja ħadet miżuri fil-qosor biex tassigura li tin¬għaqad mal-Ewro malajr, imma m’għamlitx ir-riformi strutturali fil-fond biex tassigura pro¬dut¬tività akbar kif ukoll is-sostenn tal-programmi tas-settur pubbliku. Madankollu, il-Gvern Soċjalista Grieg wera li fehem il-gravità tas-sitwazzjoni u hu lest li jaġixxi. Il-Prim Ministru Grieg, George Papandreou, ġimgħa biss wara li ngħata s-setgħa f’Ottubru li ghadda, ammetta li l-ekonomija ta’ pajjiżu kienet “fil-kura intensiva” u żied li l-Greċja kienet qed tiffaċċja “l-agħar kriżi ekonomika mir-ritorn għad-demokrazija”. Papandreou għandu l-vantaġġ li l-opinjoni pubblika hija konxja tad-diżastru li wiret il-Gvern tiegħu u dan għandu jagħtih l-appoġġ pubbliku għall-miżuri meħtieġa imma mhux popolari. Il-Prim Ministru Grieg ippropona abbozz ta’ baġit li filwaqt li jinkludi programm ta’ stimulu finanzjarju ta’ tliet biljun ewro; nefqa akbar fl-edukaz¬zjoni u s-saħħa, fl-istess ħin tnaqqis fin-nefqa f’oqsma oħra. Miżuri li jinkludu tnaqqis ta’ 25% fuq il-konsum tal-Gvern; iffriżar fuq l-impjiegi fis-servizz ċivili, b’mod li jkun impjegat wieħed għal kull ħames impjiegi li jispiċċaw bl-età tal-irtirar; kif ukoll tnaqqis fin-nefqa għad-difiża. Il-Gvern wiegħed ukoll riforma fil-pensjoni u miżuri biex tkun miġġielda l-evażjoni tat-taxxa. Il-Gvern Grieg qed jittama li b’riżultat ta’ dawn il-miżuri, sa tmiem is-sena 2010 id-deficit ikun tniżżel għal 9.1%. Tamiet sbieħ li għad iridu jkunu kumplimentati bir-riżultati. Ir-reazzjoni tas-swieq finanzjarji turi li huma ferm bogħod minn konvinti. Ħaġa waħda hija ċerta: il-Greċja, u min hu bħalha, ma jistgħux jistennew wisq favuri mill-Unjoni Ewropea. Il-Patt tal-Unjoni Ewropea għall-Istabilità u Tkabbir (SGP), li jistipula li l-pajjiżi membri għandhom iżommu l-livelli tad-djun taħt is-60% u d-defiċit tal-baġit taħt it-3%, ħa daqqa sewwa waqt il-kriżi. Fil-verità l-pajjiżi kollha tal-Unjoni Ewropea, inkluż Malta, kisru dak li jgħid l-SGP, bil-Kummissjoni u l-Bank Ċentrali Ewropew f’attentati ddisprati biex jassiguraw li r-regoli tagħhom li jinkoraġġixxu pru¬denza fiskali ma jkunux abbandunati totalment. Fil-laqgħa tal-Ministri tal-Finanzi Ewropej ta’ ftit jiem ilu, il-Greċja ppreparat lilha nnifis¬ha għal penalitajiet iebsin. Fi kliem ieħor, huwa possibbli li l-Greċja tintalab tagħmel baġit supplimentari li fih jintalab aktar tnaqqis. Jien xorta għadni nemmen li l-Greċja ssalva. Bħala mem¬bru taz-Żona Ewro mhux se tit¬ħalla ma ssalvax, bil-President tal-Bank Ċentrali Ewropew, Trichet, ikompli jwarrab mistoqsijiet tal-ġurnalisti dwar il-possibiltà li pajjiż fl-Ewro jispiċċa fallut. Iż-Żona Ewro hija għaqda po¬litika daqskemm hija għaqda ekonomika u finanzjarja. Ikun imbaraz¬zanti ferm għall-Unjoni Ewropea kieku kellu jiġri li pajjiż jaqa’ mill-Ewro. Allura wara kollox, wieħed jista’ jgħid li l-fatt li tkun mem¬bru tal-Ewro jiggarantixxi protezzjoni milli ċċedi taħt id-dejn nazzjonali? Mhux daqs¬tant b’mod mgħaġġel. It-tweġiba hija fl-affermattiv, imma mhux għar-raġunijiet implikati minn dawk li jsostnu l-verżjoni tal-Arka ta’ Noe. Filfatt is-salvazzjoni, jekk, u meta sseħħ, se sseħħ b’riżultat ta’ dixxiplina mis-suq, mir-’Rating Agencies’ u mill-IMF, minn pressjoni tal-Patt tal-Unjoni Ewropea għall-Istabilità u t-Tkabbir… kollha flimkien. Huwa permezz ta’ sagrifiċċji enormi u miżuri iebsin furzati fuq pajjiż membru taż-Żona Ewro li finalment iwasslu biex isalvaw pajjiż minn falliment. Definittivament l-Unjoni Ewropea mhux se sservi ta’ salvatur faċli. Minkejja kollox, l-istorja Griega għandha sservi ta’ twissija b’saħħitha lil pajjiżi membri oħrajn, fosthom Malta. It-tkabbir tad-djun u d-defiċits tal-baġit, tbagħbis tal-kotba u l-fehma li sħubija fl-Ewro se tipprovdi ċekk mif¬tuħ, eventwalment iwassluk għal saram kbir. Mingħajr finanzi pubbliċi kredibbli u dixxiplina fiskali u monetarja, ir-ritorn sostenibbli għal tkabbir ekonomiku u normalità m’huma xejn aktar minn ħolma sew jekk tkun membru taż-Żona Ewro kif ukoll jekk tkun barra.
IL-KRIŻI finanzjarja ħalliet ħafna vittmi. Apparti l-impatt li r-riċessjoni kellha fuq il-pajjiżi kollha tad-dinja, jispikkaw żewġ każi partikolari. Fis-sena 2008 il-prosperità mibnija f’daqqa fuq is-settur bankarju li esperjenzat l-Islanda, ikkollassat, u l-pajjiż effettivament falla. Ftit tal-jiem ilu l-waqgħa tal-kumpanija statali Dubai World niżżlet lil Dubai għarkuptejh. L-investi¬turi issa qegħdin jitħassbu serjament dwar il-possibiltà li jkun hemm pajjiżi oħrajn li jgħaddu mill-istess esperjenza kawża tad-djun tagħhom. Fiz-Żona Ewro hemm pajjiż wieħed li kulħadd qed jitħasseb dwaru bħala li jista’ jgħaddi mill-istess esperjenza: il-Greċja. Wieħed jistaqsi: il-Greċja se tkun l-Islanda taż-Żona Ewro u tbatti taħt id-djun tagħha? M’hemm ebda dubju li l-Greċja tinsab f’inkwiet ekono¬miku kbir ħafna. Sitwazzjoni li wasslet biex jitbaxxa l-livell ta’ ‘credit rating’ tal-Greċja, li minn A tniżżel għal A-. Sadanittant id-differenza fir-rati tal-imgħax fuq il-bonds kompliet tiżdied bejn il-bonds tal-Gvern Grieg u dawk Ġer¬maniżi kompliet tit¬wessa, minkejja l-fatt li l-Greċja diġà ħallset ferm aktar fuq il-bonds tagħha minn kull pajjiż ieħor tal-Unjoni Ewropea. Il-Ministru tal-Finanzi l-ġdid tal-Greċja, George Papa¬constantinou, wasal biex jikteb artiklu fil-Wall Street Journal fi sforz biex jassigura lill-investituri u lill-kummentaturi finanzjarji li waqt li l-pajjiż jinsab f’riċessjoni u qed jiffaċċja sitwazzjoni fiskali gravi, il-Greċja mhux se tfalli. Huwa veru li l-“problema Griega” mhix xi ħaġa ġdida. Il-Greċja għaddiet parti kbira minn dawn l-aħħar għaxar snin bi djun dejjem jikbru u b’defiċits fil-baġits għoljin mmens. Dwar dan id-defiċit il-Gvern Soċjalista attwali wiret mingħand il-Gvern Konservattiv “kotba mbagħbsin”. Id-defiċit għal din is-sena mistenni jkun jammonta għal 12.7% tal-Prodott Gross Domestiku, kuntrarjament għal 8% kif kien dikjarat mill-Gvern Konservattiv. Huwa pproġettat li sas-sena 2011 id-dejn tal-Gvern Grieg mistenni jkun tela’ għal 135%. Il-Greċja, bħall-Italja u ħafna pajjiżi oħrajn tal-Unjoni Ewro¬pea, kienu qegħdin iħarsu lejn iż-Żona Ewro bħala l-verżjoni moderna tal-Arka ta’ Noe li ssalvahom mid-diżastru finanzjarju. Bħal Malta, il-Greċja ħadet miżuri fil-qosor biex tassigura li tin¬għaqad mal-Ewro malajr, imma m’għamlitx ir-riformi strutturali fil-fond biex tassigura pro¬dut¬tività akbar kif ukoll is-sostenn tal-programmi tas-settur pubbliku. Madankollu, il-Gvern Soċjalista Grieg wera li fehem il-gravità tas-sitwazzjoni u hu lest li jaġixxi. Il-Prim Ministru Grieg, George Papandreou, ġimgħa biss wara li ngħata s-setgħa f’Ottubru li ghadda, ammetta li l-ekonomija ta’ pajjiżu kienet “fil-kura intensiva” u żied li l-Greċja kienet qed tiffaċċja “l-agħar kriżi ekonomika mir-ritorn għad-demokrazija”. Papandreou għandu l-vantaġġ li l-opinjoni pubblika hija konxja tad-diżastru li wiret il-Gvern tiegħu u dan għandu jagħtih l-appoġġ pubbliku għall-miżuri meħtieġa imma mhux popolari. Il-Prim Ministru Grieg ippropona abbozz ta’ baġit li filwaqt li jinkludi programm ta’ stimulu finanzjarju ta’ tliet biljun ewro; nefqa akbar fl-edukaz¬zjoni u s-saħħa, fl-istess ħin tnaqqis fin-nefqa f’oqsma oħra. Miżuri li jinkludu tnaqqis ta’ 25% fuq il-konsum tal-Gvern; iffriżar fuq l-impjiegi fis-servizz ċivili, b’mod li jkun impjegat wieħed għal kull ħames impjiegi li jispiċċaw bl-età tal-irtirar; kif ukoll tnaqqis fin-nefqa għad-difiża. Il-Gvern wiegħed ukoll riforma fil-pensjoni u miżuri biex tkun miġġielda l-evażjoni tat-taxxa. Il-Gvern Grieg qed jittama li b’riżultat ta’ dawn il-miżuri, sa tmiem is-sena 2010 id-deficit ikun tniżżel għal 9.1%. Tamiet sbieħ li għad iridu jkunu kumplimentati bir-riżultati. Ir-reazzjoni tas-swieq finanzjarji turi li huma ferm bogħod minn konvinti. Ħaġa waħda hija ċerta: il-Greċja, u min hu bħalha, ma jistgħux jistennew wisq favuri mill-Unjoni Ewropea. Il-Patt tal-Unjoni Ewropea għall-Istabilità u Tkabbir (SGP), li jistipula li l-pajjiżi membri għandhom iżommu l-livelli tad-djun taħt is-60% u d-defiċit tal-baġit taħt it-3%, ħa daqqa sewwa waqt il-kriżi. Fil-verità l-pajjiżi kollha tal-Unjoni Ewropea, inkluż Malta, kisru dak li jgħid l-SGP, bil-Kummissjoni u l-Bank Ċentrali Ewropew f’attentati ddisprati biex jassiguraw li r-regoli tagħhom li jinkoraġġixxu pru¬denza fiskali ma jkunux abbandunati totalment. Fil-laqgħa tal-Ministri tal-Finanzi Ewropej ta’ ftit jiem ilu, il-Greċja ppreparat lilha nnifis¬ha għal penalitajiet iebsin. Fi kliem ieħor, huwa possibbli li l-Greċja tintalab tagħmel baġit supplimentari li fih jintalab aktar tnaqqis. Jien xorta għadni nemmen li l-Greċja ssalva. Bħala mem¬bru taz-Żona Ewro mhux se tit¬ħalla ma ssalvax, bil-President tal-Bank Ċentrali Ewropew, Trichet, ikompli jwarrab mistoqsijiet tal-ġurnalisti dwar il-possibiltà li pajjiż fl-Ewro jispiċċa fallut. Iż-Żona Ewro hija għaqda po¬litika daqskemm hija għaqda ekonomika u finanzjarja. Ikun imbaraz¬zanti ferm għall-Unjoni Ewropea kieku kellu jiġri li pajjiż jaqa’ mill-Ewro. Allura wara kollox, wieħed jista’ jgħid li l-fatt li tkun mem¬bru tal-Ewro jiggarantixxi protezzjoni milli ċċedi taħt id-dejn nazzjonali? Mhux daqs¬tant b’mod mgħaġġel. It-tweġiba hija fl-affermattiv, imma mhux għar-raġunijiet implikati minn dawk li jsostnu l-verżjoni tal-Arka ta’ Noe. Filfatt is-salvazzjoni, jekk, u meta sseħħ, se sseħħ b’riżultat ta’ dixxiplina mis-suq, mir-’Rating Agencies’ u mill-IMF, minn pressjoni tal-Patt tal-Unjoni Ewropea għall-Istabilità u t-Tkabbir… kollha flimkien. Huwa permezz ta’ sagrifiċċji enormi u miżuri iebsin furzati fuq pajjiż membru taż-Żona Ewro li finalment iwasslu biex isalvaw pajjiż minn falliment. Definittivament l-Unjoni Ewropea mhux se sservi ta’ salvatur faċli. Minkejja kollox, l-istorja Griega għandha sservi ta’ twissija b’saħħitha lil pajjiżi membri oħrajn, fosthom Malta. It-tkabbir tad-djun u d-defiċits tal-baġit, tbagħbis tal-kotba u l-fehma li sħubija fl-Ewro se tipprovdi ċekk mif¬tuħ, eventwalment iwassluk għal saram kbir. Mingħajr finanzi pubbliċi kredibbli u dixxiplina fiskali u monetarja, ir-ritorn sostenibbli għal tkabbir ekonomiku u normalità m’huma xejn aktar minn ħolma sew jekk tkun membru taż-Żona Ewro kif ukoll jekk tkun barra.
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